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DAVID-2308845

Researching the mind
Articles Posted: 1  Links Seeded: 0
Member Since: 9/2010  Last Seen: 8/02/2011

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Common sense missing in deficit discussions?

Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:40 AM EDT
politics, congress, debt, budget, deficit, ceiling, trillion
By David-2308845

Live Poll

Does adding 2.4 Trillion and cutting 2.4 trillion equal zero change?

View Results
  • 155327
    Yes
    50%
  • 155328
    No
    50%

VoteTotal Votes: 2

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I write this with the objective of being, well, objective.

Our leaders believe they will avert the current "fiscal crisis" by increasing our deficit (borrowing) by 2.4 trillion, but at the same time "cutting" the budget by 2.4 trillion. Objectively and mathematically, this is a complete wash (excluding interest on the borrowed money). So, why are we increasing our "debt limit"? If we have made 2.4 trillion in cuts, can't we refrain from borrowing another 2.4 trillion? My apologies if I am sounding overly simplistic. My intent is not to insult anyone's intelligence. The purpose is to slow everyone down and think about this objectively.

The budget crisis really is this simple. If we DID cut 2.4 trillion from the budget, today, we would not need to borrow 2.4 trillion. Wait, they say it is "complicated". This is where our sense of intelligence, snaps the trap shut. It is "complicated" because it is not what it is being presented to be. Here is my guess. We have made budget cuts of 2.4 trillion, BUT they take place over many years. Mathematics support the illogic being delivered to us. If we have to spend an additional 2.4 trillion to "keep the doors open" on government, and will be paying interest on this money - what happens when we add the trillions of dollars we are in debt (10-14 trillion?) plus interest to the additional 2.4 Trillion we are borrowing?

This is the best analogy I can come up with. I buy a new car and the payment is $800.00 over my monthly income. I use my credit card with a 10K limit to help offset my income shortage. Yes I will be able to make my payments for a few years, but then the interest and cash advances I am taking eventually catch up with me. Then what? 

Based on the current solutions our leaders have come up with, we will have to revise the dictionary. Up and down are no longer opposites. Positive and negative, are no longer opposites. Why? Because the American people have accepted the idea that you can both borrow 2.4 trillion dollars, and at the same time "cut" or "save" 2.4 trillion dollars. Mathmetically the change is ZERO,  but somehow we are "cutting" 2.4 trillion dollars in spending.

This is my objective and mathematical opinion.

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  • Public Discussion (10)
grumpy_jon

I don't know how good you are at math, David, but it doesn't sound like that was your strong suit in school; maybe not history, either. You see, this country started off, in 1791, with $75.5 Million worth of debt. I got larger and larger ever since, except for one short interlude during Andrew Jackson's administration when it got down to just under $34,000. However, Jackson had to sell most of what the government owned (mostly lands) to do this, but it didn't take but a few years to jump back into the millions of dollars worth of debt.

You cannot make an analogy of personal debt to government debt; they just aren't the same thing and your oversimplified explanation of what happens next isn't even close to being true. If we cut government spending, we cut the GDP (size of the economy); this is almost always a bad thing (think early 2009; on steroids). It isn't good to run up the debt either. But, given the rotten choices of letting the economy go into Depression or amassing debt, many choose the debt. Others, for reasons unknown to me, choose the Depression (or deny that it could possibly happen despite the historical evidence and/or simple math of less GDP).

It is a complicated beast. Most of the talk is just that; disgusting rhetoric that doesn't solve anything (and usually makes matters worse). We are boxed into a situation where we have to choose the lessor of two evils. People are taking their sides.

  • 2 votes
Reply#1 - Sat Jul 30, 2011 3:16 AM EDT
Upscheidt Creek

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_public_debt#History

    #1.1 - Sat Jul 30, 2011 7:40 AM EDT
    grumpy_jon

    Granted, Upschedlt, we have had surpluses and I apologize for misrepresenting that. It was not my intention. I work from spreadsheets, not other's graphs and text, and I only took a quick look. I'll look more carefully next time.

      #1.2 - Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:29 PM EDT
      Reply
      David-2308845

      Jon,

      Thanks for commenting. Can you help me understand the differences between personal debt and government debt? If you have a good site to direct me to which explains how personal vs. governent debt is different I would be interested in it. Do we need the 2.4 trillion so the Fed can issue more money so banks can keep lending? My understanding is the Fed pretty much creates new money out of nothing (well the New York Fed buys government securities, which have value) and in turn lends this to other financial institutions who in turn lend, creating new money which is spent on goods and services. This in turn will spur the economy and grow GDP.
      Could you tell me what would be closer to being true, concerning what happens next (regarding my oversimplification). It appears to me we are seeing exactly what I am saying, right now. We have been spending to much money and do not have enough tax revenue to cover our obligations. So we either a) borrow more money to pay for the obligations (and pay interest on that money) or b) cut our spending so we can pay our obligations without borrowing money.
      Yes it is a ridiculously complex beast. My hope is that people don't take sides and let others run thier lives. I believe our leaders are completely out of synch with the mainstream, so they revert to pointing fingers in order to divert any attention to their party or personal actions. Ugh!
      I have held my securities license, and worked in investment banking so I understand some of the complex "instruments" that are at work in our economy. Have a great day!

      • 2 votes
      Reply#2 - Sat Jul 30, 2011 5:20 AM EDT
      jfxgillis

      David:

      Read this item. Very carefully. If you do not understand it the first time, which, no offense, I suspect you won't, read that same item again.

      I said "no offense" and I sincerely meant it. It's not that I think you're stupid or incapable of understanding the item. It's just that we've had that wrong, false and self-destructive "kitchen table common sense" beaten into us for so long that getting past it is hard.

      • 3 votes
      #2.1 - Sat Jul 30, 2011 9:02 AM EDT
      grumpy_jon

      Thanks, jfxgillis, for the links.

      David, you correctly stated:

      We have been spending to much money and do not have enough tax revenue to cover our obligations.

      Everyone has two options when facing debt greater than income:

      1. Declare Bankruptcy; or,
      2. Raise more revenue (another job, etc.)

      The government has a third, although more onerous, option: borrow or just print more money. America seems paralyzingly dysfunctional on which of the 3 government options that we should choose. (Personally, I advocate a combination of the latter two.)

        #2.2 - Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:32 PM EDT
        Reply
        LVGemini

        The bottom line I think is that the government SHOULD be run as a business! Checks and balances! All I know is if I refinance my house and my payment is reduced by $300 a month, but then I trade my car in on a brand new car and my payments on my NEW car INCREASE by $300 a month...I'm sure as hell not so ignorant as to go around spending my "extra $300" savings a month that I save on my house payment because it doesn't really exist! Sounds pretty darn simple to me...David's figure is right. It's a wash in the end in my opinion as well. That's just common sense...which CLEARLY, isn't that common on The Hill.

        • 3 votes
        Reply#3 - Sat Jul 30, 2011 5:32 AM EDT
        Fla Pat

        ...I'm sure as hell not so ignorant as to go around spending my "extra $300" savings a month that I save on my house payment because it doesn't really exist! Sounds pretty darn simple to me...

        I do not think anyone is talking about increasing future spending, indeed the opposite is true. Currently we do not have enough cash on hand to cover all current obligations after roughly 8/2/11 hence the need for immediate help (raise the ceiling) so we do not default, then move on to reduce the deficits and long term debt.

        This problem is over paying off debt already incurred - not future spending.

          #3.1 - Sat Jul 30, 2011 8:35 AM EDT
          Reply
          hsquared-1401940

          Do we need the 2.4 trillion so the Fed can issue more money so banks can keep lending?

          No.

          The bottom line I think is that the government SHOULD be run as a business!

          It is run like a business. The only difference between Ford and GM when it came to bailouts was that Ford had acquired a $25B line of credit prior to 2008. GM waited and there was no credit available and was forced into bankruptcy. All companies leverage to grow. Homeowners leverage their job, credit rating, etc.

          • 1 vote
          Reply#4 - Sat Jul 30, 2011 8:03 AM EDT
          Fla Pat

          hsquared-1401940,

          Well put and convincing argument for raising the ceiling.

          • 1 vote
          #4.1 - Sat Jul 30, 2011 9:25 AM EDT
          Reply
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